CONFIDENTIAL 7. MY CONCLUSIONS FROM ALL THIS ARE ASSUMING THAT WE CAN SUSTAIN HIS HOPE THAT A PEACEFUL SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE, WE CAN RESTARIN EEEE RESTRAIN ZAID FROM DECLARING THE FOSMAL ESTABLISHMENT OF THE UNION UNTIL 25 NOVEMBEROR THEREABOUTS. ANOTHER VISIT BY LUCE TO THE GULF ( NOT TOOSOON, UNLESS THERE IS GENUINE HOPE OF A SETTLEMENT), TOGETHERWITH RAMADHAN AND THE ID AL FITR, WILL HELP TO SLOW THINGS DOWN.(B) WE CAN PROBABLY GET RASHID TO RESTRAIN ZAID A LITTLE LONGERSTILL. BUT IF WE USE RASHID IN THIS WAY, WE SHALL RISK BREAKINGUP THE UNION,(C) RASHID WILL IN ANY CASE BE VERY UNHAPPY ABOUT PROCLAIMINGTHE UNION AGAINST 1 RANIAN OPPOSITION. HE LOATHES PACHACHI,AMD MAY TRY TO DELAY THINGS EVEN IF WE DO NOT PUSH HIM THAT WAY,BUT THERE WILL BE STRONG PRESSURE TO PROCLAIM THE UNION EVEN IN DUBAI . AND IF RASHID YIELDS TOO FARTO IRANIAN PRESSURE, THE UNION WILL BREAK UP BEFORE IT IS FORMALLYESTABLISHED. (D) AS THINGS SEEM NOW, THEREFORE, ANY ATTEMPT TO RESTRAIN THERULERS FROM PROCLAMATION OF THE UNION BEYOND THE END OF NOVEMBERWILL (UNLESS WE CAN SHOW GENUINE PROGRESS TOWARDS AN ISLANDSSETTLEMENT BY THEN) PUT AT RISK BOTH THE UNION AND THE MILITARYARRANGEMENTS WHICH WE HOPE TO MAKE WITH IT AFTER INDEPENDENCE. ARAB NATIONALIST THOUGHT IS FLOWING FAIRLY STRONGLY INABU DHABI. IF IT WERE NOT FOR ZAID AND ABU DHABI, WE COULDDELAY THE PROCLAMATION OF THE UNION FOR AS LONG AS WE WANTED. 9. PA DUBAI AND APA ABU DHABI MAY HAVE FURTHER COMMENTS. DEPARTIENTAL DISTRIBUTION ADDITIONAL DISTRIBUTIONABAB D U A EINGD* AFR DDET DCIL D Redacted Under FOIExemption S (27)Closed untilUN ODA 2012KOD INTERNAL FTFIE CONFIDENTIAL
